The Mobile Broadband Battle is Heating Up

But does it really matter which technology rules the day?  Despite the
cacophony of competing claims and over-promises, this "battle" is really just a
chicane, one that diverts attention from critical business issues that will
determine success or failure as the technologies evolve.

The crux of the argument centers on "Mbps"; with partisans for all three
contenders trotting out their peak data rates to savage opponents.  In the
HSPA+ camp, pundits fire out theoretical peak data rates of 42Mbps DL and 23
Mbps UL.  The WiMAX forces respond with theoretical peak data rates of
75Mbps DL and 30Mbps UL.  LTE joins the fray by unleashing its theoretical
peak data rates of 300Mbps DL and 75 Mbps UL.  All hell breaks loose, or so
it would appear.  Were it not for the inclusion of the word "theoretical",
we could all go home to sleep soundly and wake refreshed, safe in the knowledge
that might is right.  The reality is very different. 

Sprint has stated that it intends to deliver services at between 2 and 4 Mbps to
its customers with Mobile WiMAX.  In the real world, HSPA+ and LTE are
likely to give their users single digit Mbps download speeds. 

So in the one metric that really matters – end user experience – all three
technologies will be much of a muchness.  Data rates will offer a
noticeable improvement on what you see via your home Wi-Fi, or whilst surfing
the web on a train, but not quite enough to herald the dawn of a new age in
mobile.  Despite this reality, the campaigns currently targeting end users
have the same annoying ringtone as the campaign that preceded 3G.  Remember
all the hype around video calls? Remember the last time you actually saw someone
making a video call? 3G has certainly transformed the way that people think
about and use their mobile phones, but not in the way we were led to expect. 

The pointless stoking of customer expectations around 3G set our industry back
years, and we cannot afford a repeat performance with mobile broadband. 
Disappointed customers spend less money on handsets and services because the
experience they were promised has not quite materialized.  Disappointment
is shared with friends and family and across the social networks we are trying
so hard to monetize.  All of this dampens uptake and diminishes
expectations. 

Meanwhile, the pundits bang on about their pet technology.  One claims that
HSPA+ might delay the deployment of LTE.  Another posits that WiMAX might
be adopted, predominantly, in the laptop or netbook market.  A third
insists that LTE could replace large swathes of legacy technologies.  These
scenarios might happen …  or not.  The most likely, if less
stirring, outcome is that they are all coming, will be rolled out to hundreds of
millions of subscribers and, within five years, will be widespread. 

Confusion unsettles investors, who move to other markets and starve us of the
R&D funds needed to deliver mobile broadband.  At street level, early
adopters hold off on buying the next wave of technology while they "wait it
out." Who wants to end up with a Betamax if VHS might ultimately ‘win’ ?

What we all want are ecstatic customers who can’t help but show off their
device.  We need to produce a ‘Wow’ factor that generates momentum in the
market.  Where we should focus, urgently, is on the two issues that demand
open discussion and debate: are we taking the delivery of a winning user
experience seriously, and are we ready to cope with the tidal wave of data
traffic that will follow a successful launch?

The first issue concerns delivery to the end user of a seamless application
experience that successfully converts the improved data rates to improvements on
their device.  This can mean anything from getting LAN-like speeds for
faster email downloads through to slick, content-rich and location-aware
applications.  As we launch mobile broadband technologies, we must ensure
that new applications and capabilities are robust and stable.  More effort
must be spent developing and testing applications so that the end user is blown
away by their performance.

The second issue, the tidal wave of data, should force us to be realistic about
the strain placed on core networks by an exponential increase in data traffic. 
We have seen 10x increases in traffic since smartphones began to boom. 
Mobile device makers, network equipment manufacturers and application developers
must accept that there will be capacity shortages in the short term and, in
response, must design, build and test applications rigorously.  We need
applications with realistic data throughput requirements and the ability to
catch data greedy applications before they reach the network.

At Anite, we see the demands placed on test equipment by mobile broadband
technologies first hand.  We are responding to growing demand for new tools
that provide measures of end user experience by test applications and simulate
the effects of anticipated capacity bottlenecks.  Unfortunately, not
everyone is thinking that far ahead.  On the current evidence, applications
that should be "Wow", in theory, may end up producing little more than a murmur
of disappointment in the real world.

So let’s stop this nonsense about how one technology trounces another. 
Conflict may be interesting to journalists, but end users simply do not care. 
As an industry, our energy needs to be focused on delivering services and
applications that exceed the customer expectations regardless of whether they
access the network via WiMAX, LTE or HSPA+.  Rather than fighting, we
should be learning from one another’s experiences.  Do that and our
customers will reward us with growing demand.  If we all get sustained
growth, then don’t we all win?

Dominic Rowles, Business Unit Director, Anite

Dominic joined Anite in 1999 and has occupied positions including Regional Sales
Director, European Sales Manager, VP of US Operations and Head of 3G Strategy. 
Dominic is currently responsible for the WiMAX and Professional Services
Business Units.