WiMAX Forum Congress 09: Wrap-up & Perspectives From the Show

Wireless Broadband Perspectives – WiMAX.com Weekly Series Sponsored By: For the next few months, WiMAX.com and Cisco will be featuring weekly perspectives from leading thought leaders in the WiMAX & wireless broadband industry.  This week, we provide highlights from the WiMAX Forum Global Congress 2009 in Amsterdam.

WiMAX Forum Global Congress 2009
 

While overall attendance was down like many events this
year, the show featured an impressive list of speakers and case studies from
leading WiMAX operators and key industry insiders.  This year’s show was
focused on WiMAX providers and featured presentations from over 43 operators
including Clearwire, Yota, Comstar, PacketOne, Telefonica Brasil, MTN Nigeria,
Time Warner Cable, KDDI, Korea Telecom, WiMAX Telecom, and Orange Botswana,
among others.  What was most notable was the openness in which the service
providers shared details about their experiences and business models and the
sense of cooperation and collaboration among providers, even those operating in
similar markets.

While 2008 was about WiMAX trials and vendor/equipment
evaluations, 2009 was the year for
deployments – with several high-profile networks recently launched and more deployments
planned in the next few months.  In addition to service currently available
in Portland Oregon, US WiMAX provider Clearwire is planning a full commercial launch of Atlanta on June 15th. 
In addition, service is currently
available in Las Vegas with commercial launch planned for later this summer,
along with Dallas, Chicago and other markets later this year. 
Russian WiMAX provider Yota launched service just a few months ago and is adding
over 40,000 subscribers per month.  Japanese WiMAX provider UQ
Communications is planning commercial launch by July 1st and plans to have 1/2
of Japan covered by WiMAX by year end.  According to the WiMAX Forum, there
are now over 475 commercial WiMAX deployments in over 140 countries, covering
over 140M POPS.

A few key takeaways/notes from the event:
 

The opportunity for wireless broadband & its
potential impact on
people’s lives is enormous

Access to broadband is essential to helping build
prosperity and improve people’s lives, but is not available to many people.  
According to information presented by Cisco during the conference, only 4.6
percent of
people on earth have access to broadband and 70 percent of the world’s population live
beyond the reach of a wired broadband network.  Furthermore, even in the
top 20 most connected countries, the average broadband penetration is only 23
percent.

The correlation between broadband penetration and GDP
growth and the resulting improvement in standards of living is clear and has been well documented.  A McKinsey study early this
year found that every 10% increase in broadband penetration resulted in a
corresponding 0.6 to 0.7 percent increase in GDP.   As country’s GDP
increase, so will standards of living, helping to lift people out of poverty.

Operators with recognized brands and established installed base of customers in
emerging markets should do especially well.   Service provider
Mobilink in Pakistan is a GSM operator that has grown from less than 2M to over
27M subscribers in the last 5 years capturing over 43 percent market share. 
The operator has launched a 3.5Ghz WiMAX network in October 2008 with plans to
capitalize on broadband as it has done with voice.  "Cellular has led the
way, broadband is next," noted Naeem Zamindar, Vice President, Mobilink.

Naeem Zamindar, Mobilink
 

The demand for wireless data is increasing and more
capacity is needed 

The
combination of new devices and applications is driving a tidal wave of
demand for wireless data.  The internet is going mobile and in 5 years more
people will access the internet from mobile devices than from fixed devices. 
Sony has said that 90% of their devices will connect to the internet and to each
other in the next few years.   New applications such as Facebook, YouTube,
Skype and others are driving increased demands for broadband, especially with
regards to
video.  Monthly average data usage will rise from less than 1MB on current 3G networks to 5-10GBs+ per month
in the near future.   Voice-centric 3G networks were never designed
for these types of loads and has forced many carriers to impose data limits to
discourage high bandwidth usage.

Gordon Graylish, Intel

Interestingly, data usage on WiMAX networks has shown similar patterns to home
internet usage.  While many 3G users have put data caps to restrict usage,
some WiMAX operators have choosing to forego data caps altogether.  Russian
WiMAX provider Yota has launched their WiMAX service with no data caps and has
seen their average subscriber monthly usage soar to 10.3GB per month. 
Further information provided by Intel showed that when subscribers have access
to a high data-rate service like WiMAX, their usage patterns change and they
tend to use these technologies as their primary internet service. 
"Fundamentally, the internet is going mobile," noted Gordon Graylish, VP EMEA
for Intel.  "Data usage shows that people use 3G as an occasional,
ancillary way to connect to the internet, but WiMAX usage indicates a more
primary connection."
 

Source: Intel
 

WiMAX is flexible and is being used in many
different business models

WiMAX operators are noted for their diversity – from
Greenfield operators, cable-cos, utilities, enterprise
and telcos.  Even traditional GSM carriers in emerging markets such as Orange
Botswana and Mobilink in Pakistan are utilizing WiMAX to provide higher bandwidth applications to their
customers. 

WiMAX is often criticized for being just a "fixed wireless
access technology."  What people often fail to realize is that for most of
the world, that is where their is the greatest demand and consequently where
operators are focusing their efforts.   Once these needs are met,
other usage including portable and mobile use will follow.
 

The correct comparison is not between LTE & WiMAX,
but between 3G & WIMAX

While the press loves to debate the merits between WiMAX and
LTE, that comparison is just not relevant.   Despite a few
early trials, wide-scale  LTE deployments will not occur until 2012 at the
earliest.  The incumbent cellular carriers have too much invested in
spectrum and equipment not to maximize their 3G investments.  Therefore the
real comparison for the next few years is between 3G networks and WiMAX.

While 3G networks may prove satisfactory for lower
bandwidth applications like email and basic browsing, all carries will
need to move toward OFDM based technologies with wider channels and an all IP core network
(like WiMAX) to
provide higher bandwidth services.  Current  3G networks and their
narrow channels are not able to deliver a large amount of capacity to a large number of people. 
Furthermore, much of the capacity for 3G networks will be needed for continued
growth in voice and light data usage; while WiMAX will focus more on heavy data usage. 

With regards to performance, consistent terminology needs
to be used in comparing the technologies.  While cellular carries continue
to advertise peak performance on 3G networks as "up to 3.5Mbps, etc." a more
meaningful measurement would be "average throughput" received by subscribers on
the network.  While conditions may vary, tests have typically shown that
WiMAX networks perform 2-3x better than 3G networks in both downlink and uplink
performance.
 

Laptops, Netbooks and other innovative and dual-mode
devices will drive adoption of WiMAX

Similar to the adoption of Wi-FI, the embedding of WiMAX in
notebooks and netbooks will drive down costs and ensure that laptops are "WiMAX
ready."  According to Intel, over 16 OEMs have announced support in laptops
and netbooks and over 100 models will be available by year-end.

Also, new Integrated WiMAX/Wi-Fi devices will provide
flexible ways for subscribers to connect.  These devices essentially
utilize WiMAX for internet connectivity back to the tower and then use Wi-FI to
connect devices in the last hundred feet. 
 

Source:  Intel
 

WiMAX Will Drive New Partnerships

As more WiMAX networks are deployed, new partnerships and
business relationships within WiMAX companies will occur.  Clearwire is calling for
collaboration among ecosystem
partners in procurement and in technical specifications to help drive down costs
and minimize the need of vendors to support multiple technology profiles. 
With its Global Alliance Partner program, Clearwire provides access to its
management and technological expertise and  allows companies to leverage Clearwire’s
purchasing power to lower device costs as well as assist WiMAX operators with a wide
range of deployment activities from technology evaluation, vendor selection to
customer billing.

The WiMAX Forum also announced the first operator roaming
trial in the US between Clearwire and Digital Bridge Communications (DBC). 
According to the Forum, 14 participants are in the trial including the clearing
houses that will process the transactions.  As part of the trial, Clearwire
customers will test access to the DBC network and services.  Although only
a test, the trial is taking place over both operators commercial equipment so it
would be straightforward to turn it into a commercial service once the trial is
complete.